Capital Resilience in the Carbon Era: Bank Efficiency and Physical Risk Interactions in High-Income and Middle-Income Countries
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24191/g6ffth90Keywords:
Banks, Banks, Conventional Banks, Conventional Banks, Islamic banks, Islamic banks, Physical Risk, Physical Risk, Transition Risk, Transition RiskAbstract
In an era with heightened financial uncertainty and an increase in climate risk shocks, the capital level of banks has become one of the crucial tools to increase depositor trust and promote long-term stability while remaining resilient. The study investigates the capital decision of Islamic and conventional banks across High-Income and Middle-Income countries over a period of 28 years. The study further examines the relationship between cost efficiency and bank capital across different level of physical risk exposure. The estimation using random effect model of cluster standard errors discloses a significantly positive relationship between transition risk, profitability, and economy with the capital level. Meanwhile, cost efficiency and bank size are negatively correlated with the capital level. The capital level of banks is found to be significantly different between crises and non-crisis periods, between bank specializations, and between country groups. Additionally, the findings reveal that physical risk negatively moderates the relationship between cost efficiency and bank capital, with the interaction effect being more pronounced for banks operating in high physical risk environments. Regulators are recommended to ensure both Islamic and conventional banks consistently uphold high capital level while implementing stricter monitoring on larger bank size to mitigate moral hazard.
References
Alessi, L., Di Girolamo, E. F., Pagano, A., & Giudici, M. P. (2024). Accounting for climate transition risk in banks’ capital requirements. Journal of Financial Stability, 73. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101269
Alzoubi, M., Alkhatib, A., Alsmadi, A. A., & Kasasbeh, H. (2022). Bank size and capital: A trade-off between risk-taking incentives and diversification [Article]. Banks and Bank Systems, 17(4), 1-11. https://doi.org/10.21511/bbs.17(4).2022.01
Amran, N. H., & Ahmad, W. (2021). Capital risk: Do too-big-to-fail and shariah framework stringency matter? Management and Accounting Review, Volume 20 No 3, pp. 107-133. https://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/61674
Antoun, R., Coskun, A., & Youssef, D. (2021). Bank-Specific, Macroeconomic, and Institutional Factors Explaining the Capital Buffer and Risk Adjustments in Banks: A Simultaneous Approach. Eastern European Economics, 59(2), 103-124. https://doi.org/10.1080/00128775.2020.1870406
Bakkar, Y. (2023). Climate Risk and Bank Capital Structure. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Yassine-Bakkar-2/publication/372690549_Climate_Risk_and_Bank_Capital_Structure/links/64c3a43e6f28555d86da63fa/Climate-Risk-and-Bank-Capital-Structure.pdf
Barnett, M. (2024). A Run on Fossil Fuel Climate Change and Transition Risk.
Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. (1988). International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards. In.
Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. (2010). Basel III: A global regulatory framework for more resilient banks and banking systems. In.
Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. (2021). Climate-related risk drivers and their transmission channels. In.
Bellia, M., Maccaferri, S., & Schich, S. (2022). Limiting too-big-to-fail: market reactions to policy announcements and actions. Journal of Banking Regulation, 23(4), 368-389. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41261-021-00176-y
Berger, A. N., & Demirgüç-Kunt, A. (2021). Banking research in the time of COVID-19. Journal of Financial Stability, 57, 100939. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2021.100939
Boubaker, S., Uddin, M. H., Kabir, S. H., & Mollah, S. (2023). Does cost-inefficiency in Islamic banking matter for earnings uncertainty? Review of Accounting and Finance, 22(1), 1-36. https://doi.org/10.1108/RAF-07-2022-0193
Dafermos, Y. (2023). Climate change and central banking in least developed countries. https://unctad.org/system/files/non-official-document/ldc2023_bd-yannis-dafermos_en.pdf
Do Van, A. (2021). Does better capitalization enhance bank efficiency and limit risk taking? Evidence from ASEAN commercial banks. Global Finance Journal, 100617. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfj.2021.100617
Donnellan, J., & Rutledge, W. L. (2019). A case for resource‐based view and competitive advantage in banking. Managerial and Decision Economics, 40(6), 728-737. https://doi.org/10.1002/mde.3041
Duong, K. T., & Ha, M. Q. (2024). Climate risk and bank stability: Evidence from emerging countries. Journal of Science and Technology - HaUI, 60(11E). https://doi.org/10.57001/huih5804.2024.350
Etudaiye-Muhtar, O. F., & Abdul-Baki, Z. (2021). Market structure, institutional quality and bank capital ratios: evidence from developing countries. European Journal of Management and Business Economics, 30(1), 92-107. https://doi.org/10.1108/EJMBE-09-2019-0158
Garcia-Villegas, S., & Martorell, E. (2024). Climate transition risk and the role of bank capital requirements. Economic Modelling, 135. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106724
International Monetary Fund. (2025). Integrating Climate Change into Macroeconomic Analysis: A Review of Impact Channels, Data, Models, and Scenarios. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2025/08/26/Integrating-Climate-Change-into-Macroeconomic-Analysis-A-Review-of-Impact-Channels-Data-569996
Islamic Financial Services Board. (2025). Islamic Financial Services Industry Stability Report. https://www.ifsb.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/IFSI-Stability-Report-2025.pdf
Jubilee, R. V. W., Kamarudin, F., Latiff, A. R. A., Hussain, H. I., & Tan, K. M. (2021). Do Islamic versus conventional banks progress or regress in productivity level? Future Business Journal, 7(1), 22. https://doi.org/10.1186/s43093-021-00065-w
Kanago, B. (2023). The Comovement Between Forecast Errors for Real GDP and Its Deflator in Six OECD Countries: Did Supply Shocks Become Less Dominant During the Great Moderation? Journal of Business Cycle Research, 19(2), 149-169. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41549-023-00086-0
Klein, P.-O., & Turk-Ariss, R. (2022). Bank capital and economic activity. Journal of Financial Stability, 62. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2022.101068
Le, V. H., Nguyen, A. H., Le, T. M. T., & Cao, V. B. (2022). Factors affecting capital adequacy ratio of joint-stock commercial banks in Vietnam. Journal of International Economics and Management, 22(1), 42 - 62. https://doi.org/10.38203/jiem.022.1.0041
Mandel, A., Tiggeloven, T., Lincke, D., Koks, E., Ward, P., & Hinkel, J. (2021). Risks on global financial stability induced by climate change: the case of flood risks. Climatic Change, 166(1-2). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03092-2
Mohanty, S., & Mahakud, J. (2021). Causal Nexus Between Liquidity Creation and Bank Capital Ratio: Evidence from India. Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, 15(2), 205-237. https://doi.org/10.1177/0973801021990399
Moudud-Ul-Huq, S., Ahmed, K., Chowdhury, M. A. F., M. Sohail, H., Biswas, T., & Abbas, F. (2022). How do banks’ capital regulation and risk-taking respond to COVID-19? Empirical insights of ownership structure. International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, 15(2), 406-424. https://doi.org/10.1108/IMEFM-07-2020-0372
Mutarindwa, S., Schäfer, D., & Stephan, A. (2021). Differences in African banking systems: causes and consequences. Journal of Institutional Economics, 17(4), 561-581.
Naili, M., & Lahrichi, Y. (2022). Banks’ credit risk, systematic determinants and specific factors: recent evidence from emerging markets. Heliyon, 8(2), e08960. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e08960
Nam, P. H., Tan, N. N., Thach, N. N., Ngan, H. T. T., & Nhat, N. M. (2022). What Affects the Capital Adequacy Ratio? A Clear Look at Vietnamese Commercial Banks. Financial Econometrics: Bayesian Analysis, Quantum Uncertainty, and Related Topics, Cham.
Ranger, N., Mahul, O., & Monasterolo, I. (2022). Assessing Financial Risks from Physical Climate Shocks: A Framework for Scenario Generation. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/760481644944260441/pdf/Assessing-Financial-Risks-from-Physical-Climate-Shocks-A-Framework-for-Scenario-Generation.pdf
Schuwer, U., Claudia, L., & Noth, F. (2019). How do banks react to catastrophic events? Evidence from Hurricane Katrina. Review ofFinance, 23(1), 75–116.
Sean Paul, A. D. C., De Jesus, G. P., & Nicasio Angelo, J. A. (2022). An Exploratory Analysis of Related Macroeconomic Indicators as Determinants to Economic Growth. Journal of Economics, Finance, and Accounting Studies, 4(1), 314-339. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.32996/jefas.2022.4.1.21
Sobarsyah, M., Soedarmono, W., Yudhi, W. S. A., Trinugroho, I., Warokka, A., & Pramono, S. E. (2020). Loan growth, capitalization, and credit risk in Islamic banking. International Economics, 163, 155-162. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2020.02.001
Sobol, I., Dopierała, Ł., & Wysiński, P. (2023). Is the profitability of Islamic and conventional banks driven by the same factors? - A study of banking in the Middle East. PLoS ONE, 18, Article 8. . https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0289264
Toh, M. Y., & Zhang, Y. (2022). Bank capital and risk adjustment responses to economic uncertainty: Evidence from emerging Southeast Asian economies. Research in International Business and Finance, 60, 101576. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2021.101576
World Bank Group. (2020). Global Financial Development Report 2019/2020: Bank Regulation and Supervision a Decade after the Global Financial Crisis https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-1447-1
World Bank Group. (2025). World Bank Country and Lending Groups. https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519-world-bank-country-and-lending-groups
Wu, J., Yan, Y., Chen, M., & Jeon, B. N. (2022). Monetary policy, economic uncertainty and bank risk: Cross-country evidence. Journal of International Money and Finance, 122, 102580. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2021.102580
Yin, H. (2021). The impact of competition and bank market regulation on banks’ cost efficiency. Journal of Multinational Financial Management, 61, 100677. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mulfin.2021.100677
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Wahida Ahmad, Nur Hazimah Amran, Nur Syahirah Rokeman

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.



