Modelling Malaysia Production of Logs using Box-Jenkins Model

Abstract

Comprehending Malaysia’s logs production not only explaining the trend of the Malaysia's GDP. It is also essential for the country as it influences revenue and shapes policies regarding forest resources. Studying the time series of Malaysia logs production is very important for providing comprehensive understanding in making decisions regarding economic development, resource management, and environmental sustainability. Thus, this study aims in determining the best time series model for forecasting the Malaysia logs production by applying the Box-Jenkins model. Based on historical yearly data of Malaysia’s logs production from year 1947 to 2021, in overall, the data series exhibit increasing trend and cyclical patterns. ARIMA(0,2,1) is found to be the best model for forecasting the Malaysia’s logs production where it forecasts values are having decreasing trend.