MODELING AND PREDICTING THE DYNAMICS OF COVID-19 IN MALAYSIA: A STATE-SPACE APPROACH

Authors

  • Wan Munirah Wan Mohamad School of Mathematical Sciences, College of Computing, Informatics and Mathematics, Universiti Teknologi MARA, Johor Branch, Pasir Gudang Campus, Jalan Purnama, Bandar Seri Alam, 81750 Masai, Johor, Malaysia
  • Syazwani Mohd Salleh School of Mathematical Sciences, College of Computing, Informatics and Mathematics, Universiti Teknologi MARA, Seremban 3 Branch, Persiaran Seremban Tiga 1, Seremban 3, 70300 Seremban, Negeri Sembilan
  • Tengku Farah Busyra Tengku Nadzion School of Mathematical Sciences, College of Computing, Informatics and Mathematics, Universiti Teknologi MARA, Seremban 3 Branch, Persiaran Seremban Tiga 1, Seremban 3, 70300 Seremban, Negeri Sembilan
  • Abdul Latif Mohd Riza School of Mathematical Sciences, College of Computing, Informatics and Mathematics, Universiti Teknologi MARA, Seremban 3 Branch, Persiaran Seremban Tiga 1, Seremban 3, 70300 Seremban, Negeri Sembilan
  • Azmirul Ashaari zman Hashim International Business School, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Skudai, Johor, Malaysia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.24191/mjoc.v9i1.20258

Keywords:

COVID-19, SIR Model, Simulation, State Space, Mathematical Modelling

Abstract

e emergence of COVID-19 in Malaysia in January 2020 marked the beginning of a significant public health challenge. Despite the transition to the endemic phase on April 1, 2022, the global impact of the virus remains substantial. This research aims to forecast the cumulative number of detected cases and deaths by employing a state-space model derived from the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model, capturing the multi-wave dynamics of COVID-19. The modeling focuses on estimating the trends within the time interval spanning from week 1 to week 12, commencing in mid-June 2022. Real-time data sourced from the Ministry of Health in Malaysia serve as the basis for model development and validation, utilizing MATLAB and Simulink for simulation purposes. The findings of the simulation reveal a direct correlation between the number of detected cases and deaths, suggesting a positive relationship with the real-life situation. This mathematical representation contributes to a deeper understanding of the ongoing dynamics of COVID-19 and provides a tool for predicting future trends, aiding in public health planning and response efforts.

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Published

2024-04-01

How to Cite

Wan Mohamad, W. M. ., Mohd Salleh, S. ., Tengku Nadzion, T. F. B. ., Mohd Riza, A. L., & Ashaari, A. (2024). MODELING AND PREDICTING THE DYNAMICS OF COVID-19 IN MALAYSIA: A STATE-SPACE APPROACH. Malaysian Journal of Computing, 9(1), 1664–1672. https://doi.org/10.24191/mjoc.v9i1.20258

Issue

Vol. 9 No. 1 (2024): MJoC Volume 09 (1) 2024

Section

Articles

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Copyright (c) 2025 Wan Munirah Wan Mohamad, Syazwani Mohd Salleh, Tengku Farah Busyra Tengku Nadzion, Abdul Latif Mohd Riza, Azmirul Ashaari

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